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What exactly does Dwyane Wade do for Miami?


After Chris Bosh went down, we had the gall to say the Heat don’t need him. And yet, they’ve been on a two game skid and face keeping Bron from his ring yet again. We will hold firm that the lack of Bosh doesn’t matter. The Heat are missing a key player and that is Dwyane Wade. Let’s use some of our tools to do a run down.

Advanced Box Scores for the 2012 Playoffs: Closing Out Round #1

“Search for the truth is the noblest occupation of man; its publication is a duty.” -Madame de Stael
Pretty sure I forgot something while I was doing all my picks for round #2
Oh! I forgot to wrap up round 1 of the playoffs!

That’s the Best Players for round 1 in the playoffs as a word cloud. There is a clear mvp for Round #1 and It’s a surprising member of everyone’s favorite up and coming team (that is to everyone who does not read this blog).
From our old friend at http://www.bouncex3.com/

Larry Bird’s Executive of the Year is a travesty


If we give an award to an executive it should be because they improve their teams wins and do it by making intelligent moves. Larry Bird does not deserve this award at all. Last season the Pacers won 37 wins. This season they improved their wins by 15 (if we adjust to an 82 game season), so clearly it was the brilliant moves made by Larry Bird, right? The answer is no! The Pacer’s success had everything to do with a lucky improvement from Roy Hibbert and a good progression from sophomore Paul George. The moves Larry Bird made to help the team? Well they were mediocre to bad. Let’s review using Basketball-Reference’s transaction data:

Explaining the Heat “collapse”


I pushed Arturo to get his piece in on why the Heat don’t need Bosh before the game yesterday. It was thus appropriate that the Heat fell on their home court to the Indiana Pacers. I have trouble calling a three point loss a collapse, but I thought I’d give insight into how Arturo was right that the Heat didn’t need Chris Bosh and how they could somehow lose without him playing.
Small sample size warning. This is looking at super small sample sizes in the playoffs. If you’d like more comprehensive analysis of long term data, I welcome you to peruse our archives. If you are like most basketball fans that are enjoying the playoffs though, and want quick answers then read on!

The Ennui of Chris Bosh

“Life’s but a walking shadow, a poor player,
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage,
And then is heard no more. It is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.” – William Shakespeare  from Macbeth
I got into a heated twitter debate the other day. The reason behind it was the Chris Bosh injury.
Specifically it was my belief that Bosh being out and LBJ playing at the 4 makes Miami more not less likely to win. Why you ask?
To win or contend for a championship a team must:

James Harden IS the 6th man of the year


The other day the NBA announced that James Harden has won the 6th man of the year (6MOY) award. Like most NBA awards, the 6MOY is determined by a panel of sportswriters and various other media. But unlike most NBA awards (for instance: this year’s Most Improved Player), this award was given to the right player.
Take a look at the voting:

Clippers vs. Grizzlies wrap up: Reggie Evans to the rescue


And with a statement victory on Sunday both Los Angeles teams advance to the second round. This is the first time that both residents of the Staples Center have advanced to round two in the same year. The Clippers got an infusion of talent when a lucky trade fell in their lap. The Grizzlies were coming off a year where they shocked the world. Let’s break down this thrilling series.
The Regend continues in Los Angeles
2012 Los Angeles Clippers Playoffs Round 1 Totals

At least Denver didn’t go out like a punk


I don’t mind dying, I just don’t wanna go out like some punk. – Samuel L Jackon
As a Nuggets fan I’m used to first round exits. I wasn’t expecting anything more this season but I just wanted to go out with dignity. I got what I wanted. I still get to end the series upset. Of course, the things I’m upset with are the things are the things that have upset me for most of the season. Let’s review.

Barnes and Noble Deal of the Day: Stumbling on Wins for $1.99



As we have noted over the past couple of weeks, today (May12th 2012) Barnes&Noble will be offering Stumbling on Wins as the Deal of the Day at an absolute steal for $1.99!
The book addresses many questions, including…

  • Was Isiah Thomas a victim of his player budget?
  • Do hockey goalies matter?
  • Why should basketball players go pro after appearing in the Final Four?
  • Do coaches have any impact on an NBA player’s performance?

Also, if you’d like to help spread the word please pass this along.

Picking the Games for Round 2 of the 2012 NBA Playoffs

“Sometimes we make guesses because we wish,with our limited knowledge, to say as much as we can about a situation.”
― Matthew Sands ”Feynman Lectures on Physics/Vol 1 Ch 06 – Probability”

However much we may argue against it, there is a great degree of randomness to the universe. We can set up a set of general rules and parameters to model and identify most anything but the randomness of the universe guarantees that prediction and modeling are only approximations. We can only really tell you were something might be within a certain level of probability given a certain set of of conditions but really no plan of action survives first contact with the enemy or with ourselves.